Congrats!

  ¶ 7:09 PM |

  Folding when you think you're ahead - ring games

When you're headsup with another player and think you might be ahead, you need to figure it out and make the right play. If you're ahead (or think they'll fold), raise. If you're behind, fold. If you have odds and will get paid off if you hit, call. However, if you're in a multi-way pot, things become a little more difficult.

There are times when you can have the best hand and still be an underdog. In Omaha, this is a regular occurrence, but it is true in Holdem as well. Imagine a hand where an opponent made a call with 22 (no heart) and a flop of Th9s5h. You have [Qh Jh] for an open-ended straight draw and flush draw plus two over-cards. You have 9 flush outs, 6 more straight outs (excluding the two hearts) and 6 pair outs for 21 outs total. You're over 72% to win. From his perspective, the only hands he can beat are 2 over-cards. That means if he is ahead, you still have 6 outs for a bigger pair. If you're willing to push this hand hard, then you have to at least have a draw bigger than that like a straight draw or flush draw, which would give me enough outs (10 for a gutshot and 2 over-cards to 15 for a flush draw and 2 over-cards) to be only a slight underdog or even a slight favorite. This is a drastic example so let's move on.

In a multi-way pot there are often times when you believe that you're ahead and you still can't call. Not only is there a chance that you're behind, but you think you'll get called by big draws if you raise. Here is a real hand I played last night...

I have KcJc and limp after 2 others on the button. The blinds and the 3 of us limpers see the flop...J96 (2 spades). The SB whom is a habitual semi-bluffer/(thinks he's tricky) player leads out for about 75% of the pot. I'm not too worried about him because I think he is the type that would check-raise big if he two pair or better (bad play btw). If it were heads-up, I'd probably raise trying to take away his odds and/or find out where I'm at. The problem was that he got called in 2 places before it got around to me. Now I have a choice. I can raise big or fold. I believe that this situation is a bad place for a call. Because I believe that the SB could very likely have a drawing hand and I think the two callers are also drawing (this board is too coordinated to slowplay something), I'm likely to get called on a flop raise. Also, because of the way this hand has played out so far, it is difficult to put an opponent on any rational hand range. The worst part about this hand is that I don’t know what turn card I want to see except maybe another jack or a non-spade deuce/trey/four.

This is a hand that I'm either barely ahead or way behind already. Either way, I may get more than one caller for my raise at which point I'll be put into a difficult situation on later streets if I'm called and a semi-scare card appears. The board is so coordinated that I'll most likely not know where I stand for the rest of the hand. The turn/river is where the money is made or lost with big stacks and I'll have to guess if I'm ahead or not. I can fold and save myself heartache and if I'm losing any EV, it isn't much.

So if you're put into a situation where you're either barely ahead or way behind, it is any easy fold. There is no need to play thin edges unless you're in a game where you think you're the worst player at the table and need every possible edge you can get.  ¶ 10:24 AM |

  Miscellaneous thoughts

• Believe it or not a low pair is not a hand to call an all-in bet
  
• What would you say if I told you that aces lose sometimes?
  
• Three pair is not a good hand
  
• You should call any bet any time with any two cards preflop. You never know. You might flop quads.
  
• Top pair is not the nuts
  
• If you change the deck color in the table options before every session, you’ll undo the “lose” flag they set after a cashout.
  
• Never fold what will be the winning hand
  
• AK is not a hand you want to get all-in with in the first round of a SNG…neither is QQ folks.
  
• Did you know that if you don’t like a site, you can change? There are more online poker sites out there than you think. Try to google for online poker…you’ll be surprised.
  
• Always fold aces preflop if someone goes all-in and you’re going to get rivered.
  
• If you keep pushing all-in with AK in a ring game, one day my KK will hold up
  
• Check-raising with nothing will confuse your opponents
  
• Fold and show the nuts every once in awhile so they can't put you on a hand just because you're folding.
  
• That one is important so let me repeat it. You don't want to get predictable. You don't want them thinking you're folding garbage all the time, so fold and show the nuts periodically. Maybe every other time you hold the nuts would be good.
  
• Whoever invented casino chips was really smart. Whoever invented the rake was smarter.
  
• If you're playing NL Hold'em, you should take at least a third of your bankroll to the table. That way, when you take a bad beat 3 consecutive hands in a row, you can be done with this stupid game.
  
• You should tip online dealers. If you don't they'll start screwing with the river cards.
  
• When there are 8000 total chips in a SNG and the big blind is 600, then there is really no need to raise anything but all-in. I'm serious on this one folks. Even headsup and even in chips, you only have 6.5 big blinds to start the hand. If you raise to 1800, you're basically commited anyway.
  
• I'd rather have a middle pair than AK.
  
• When in the SB and facing a small raise and 2 callers, I'd rather fold AK than reraise with it. (in a ring game) I probably call and try to play a small pot unless I hit a big hand. Call me crazy, but I think that the SB and AK go together like a lemming and a cliff.
  

Congrats to Chris at 21 outs twice for winning his main event seat. Also, congrats to Ben the MilkyBarKid for killing the big Omaha games.  ¶ 10:36 AM |

  Just so you know...

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=58046
pokenum -h ah ad - 2h 7d
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Ah 1519445 88.74 184642 10.78 8217 0.48 0.890
7d 2h 184642 10.78 1519445 88.74 8217 0.48 0.110

See, I'm still almost 11% to win this. F your aces.  ¶ 4:37 PM |

  If you haven't read the previous post, scroll down and read that before this one.

In response to comments...His 3x raise preflop meant that he had 2 cards (any 2 cards). My call meant that I had 2 cards too. I think we both knew that. I definitely want to play a pot in position against a LAG and would've called with 42 I think.

First of all, LAGs rarely slow-play anything, especially because they figure to get called a large range of hands. Unless he had top set, I doubt he checks the flop to me if he has hit anything. If he had top set, I would've heard about it before the river because our stacks were big enough relative to the pot that I believe he'd try building a pot before the river. I believe that he check-raises either the flop or turn with a monster.

I also believe that there was a good chance that he was calling the flop/turn with nothing in order to take it away from me later.

I believe that his river lead was a blocking bet. Let me explain what a blocking bet is for those that don't know. Usually, when a player is out of position and there has been action on previous streets, he/she will lead out on the river. This is an attempt to control how much they put into the pot on the river by discouraging any bluffs or bigger bets by the opponent who has position on them. This bet is usually one third to two thirds the pot size. I don't know how many times I've read "I bet the river but I'm done with the hand if I'm raised" or "I bet the river because if you get raised, you can be sure you're behind and fold". To counter the blocking bet, a raise is clearly in order. It increases your variance, but I think it is the obvious play most of the time. Just don't get predictable.

Blocking bets mean weak hands. They make the bet to control the pot-size, so it means they're not willing to call a big raise (unless they're on Party and didn't even realize that they mentally committed themselves. I've seen someone at 600NL lead into me with middle pair after I had bet the whole way and then called my all-in for 4x his river bet because he was "pot-committed". I had flopped a flush and he gift-wrapped his stack for me with middle pair.)

Players will however lead into the bettor when they hit their hand if their opponent is likely to check through on the river. I've been known to check-through with a mediocre/good hand. I read the opponent as weak because the river didn't appear to help anything except perhaps a weak 2 pair.

Anyway, if he had anything, I put him on a weak ace or perhaps a middle pocket pair, with which he was attempting to apply pot control by the line he took. His line is a good way to keep the pot small and induce bluffs like mine. My read was that if he had a flush draw he would've led into me on the flop. If he did have a flush draw, he may have paired up his Q or 9 and was willing to spend $120 to see if he was good and/or push me off my hand.

I could not think of a hand that he'd play with that line that he'd be willing to call a substantial raise, so my decision was to raise...

doubleas: raises $280 to $400
LAG: folds
doubleas collected $517 from pot
doubleas: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $520 | Rake $3
Board [Ah 6d 3h Qc 9c]

He folded very fast, which leads me to believe that he had a single pair or missed draw and the weak bluff didn't work. This hand influenced future play in that he never raised my big blind again.

This hand illustrates several NL concepts. In limit, he probably would've check/called the river if he had anything and would've won this pot while controlling the pot size. In NL, he needs a better hand so get to showdown. Also, this is an obvious display of how position is so important. The other concept is that you have to sell your hand like it is a monster if you want your opponent to believe it. If he check-raises at any point in this hand including the river, I can't call.

BTW, for those playing on Party, I'd probably check-through on the turn and fold the river here unless you have a really good read on the opponent. I really do think there is a drastic difference in play between Stars and Party.  ¶ 10:41 PM |

  Edit: Check out the new PokerStars blog by Otis
PokerStars Game #1577135963: Hold'em No Limit ($5/$10) - 2005/04/24 - 11:39:46 (ET)
Table 'Ekard' Seat #9 is the button
Seat 2: LAG ($808.30 in chips)
Seat 3: doubleas ($1090 in chips)
Seat 4: folder ($632.50 in chips)
Seat 5: folder ($130.80 in chips)
Seat 6: folder ($985 in chips)
Seat 7: folder ($1116.25 in chips)
Seat 8: folder ($970 in chips)
Seat 9: folder ($1784.75 in chips)
LAG: posts small blind $5
doubleas: posts big blind $10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to doubleas [Kc 6c]
all folds to LAG in SB
LAG: raises $20 to $30
doubleas: calls $20
*** FLOP *** [Ah 6d 3h]
LAG: checks
doubleas: bets $30
LAG: calls $30
*** TURN *** [Ah 6d 3h] [Qc]
LAG: checks
doubleas: bets $80
LAG: calls $80
*** RIVER *** [Ah 6d 3h Qc] [9c]
LAG: bets $120

He is loose and I have played back at him several times recently. I'll tell you how I interpreted his bet in the next post and then say whether I folded or not.

OK, what do you put the LAG on here? What is my best course of action?  ¶ 11:45 AM |

 

"One thing about poker is that it can make you look like an idiot."
--Phil Ivey

I really played like garbage tonight. Need to get back into thinking more and playing a bit less I think. While learning, I usually post some decent content so stay tuned...  ¶ 4:35 PM |

  I apologize to the Party players from tonight

I usually don't tell everyone how much of a completely retarded donkey below average player they are, but last night, I took about 15 too many bad beats in tournaments, SNGs and ring games. They weren't unreal by themselves, but put in such a sequence behind one another, was fucking ridiculous fascinating. Several AK(or Q) vs A-crap all-in preflop and 3-5 outers all-in on the flop. Here's a doozy for ya...oh never fucking mind. So I take another 5 outer and let go on the poor guy. He defends his play, but believe me it was bad and he got all his chips in with 5 outs. After he hit top pair, I guess he had to go down with it and take out my aces. And if I hear "but it was suited" one more time...I'm going to ring his fucking neck ummm...phone.

One last thing...if you call a big raise preflop for almost half your chips, then you better believe that you're already ahead AND you're trying to gather callers because you're real short and need to do better than a double up if you can. Otherwise, you are a donkey less than optimal player.

I'm beginning to sound like Matt, except his insults are more entertaining. I just wish my opponents atrocious play would work against them instead of for them.

Anyway, I apologize.

I'm the donkey. I'm a break-even player as of late so I'm the donkey. When I figure how to beat these players, then I'll have a leg to stand on. Uummm...Fuck that. When you learn how to fold top pair thinking that you're behind, get back to me. Or how about folding an ace preflop you ass friendly competitor?

How's that for an apology?

I'm really not as irritated as it may seem. I was at the moment that I let into the guy, but this post was supposed to be entertaining, not a whine. I didn't lose much money last night, because all but one of the beats were in tournaments and SNGs.

Tool for Party SNGs

Found this great site when reading aprock. This is essentially PokerStove, which I already have and use, but with a slight angle to it. Great stuff for headsup push-fests in Party SNGs.  ¶ 9:42 AM |

  SNG impressions/results so far

After 96 SNGs at the $55 level, my stats include 12.5% wins, 18.75% 2nds and 11.5% 3rds. That means I'm ITM money 43% of the SNGs for a ROI of 25%. My stats aren't so good in the $109s. There is actually quite a difference between the levels and I think I've just figured out how to adjust and I’ve done better over my last 7 tries at $109. The $55s seem much easier for some reason. Even the $215s I've watched seem easier than the $109s I play. Perhaps there are more gamblers at the $215. The $109s require you to get in there and take some pots before you get down to 5-6 handed or else you’ll be in bad shape. Then you still have to win some races to get in the money. By then the blinds are 300/600 and there are only 10K chips on the table. I’ve never made the money in a $109 without playing well AND getting lucky (winning your 50% and 60% races). The $55s are usually loose enough that you only have to win the pots that should be yours anyway (when you start with big hands or hit big flops). You just have to steal the extremely valuable blinds a bit more in the $109s and I’m beginning to do that with more frequency. The interesting thing is that people fold less in the $55s so stealing becomes riskier and in some cases just stupid because of the value of chips compared to the stacks late in the tournaments. When the blinds are 100/200, it is a push-fest for all but the real big stacks. Stealing is most valuable when the blinds are still around 25/50 because they’re still small enough that people won’t be forced to pick a hand and push with something like QJ. At that point, stealing just means that you’re probably going to have to call an all-in with somewhere between 40-60% chance of winning. I really think that learning to adjust between the $55s and $109s will help my chances in the WSOP steps.

Condolences and Congrats

Max Pescatori put a bad beat on Matt Matros in the $25K WPT event. It’s funny that on Matt’s site, there is a complete explanation of the hand, but on Max’s site, it just says that he eliminated him and that Matt didn’t get too upset.

Games Grid

GamesGrid has launched a 1000% bonus, which works off just like the UB points do. You'll earn $0.20 for each pot that is raked $3 and it goes down from there. I'll participate when they have more games, so everyone get over there and try them out. I'll follow.  ¶ 9:53 AM |

  Party players confuse the #$@!% out of me

It is hard for me to put an opponent on a hand when they play like morons. I constantly see unbelieveably bad bluffs and think that they have to have a monster or flop/turn calls that boggle the mind (pot-sized call with A3o on a JT8 rainbow board was the latest). I've seen top pair slowplayed until the river when they push all-in for 3x the pot without improvement. Some of these players must be the dumbest people on the planet. I have no idea how they figured out how to actually earn money in real life in order to play these games.

So I adjust...I call their stupid bluffs that I would otherwise think are monsters and I start VALUE betting middle pair and get called by draws or bottom pair. Things are going well. Then I run into someone who actually knows how to play and make what would normally be a stupid play against them because I just figured they were as stupid as everyone else at the table.

Also with people pushing all-in preflop for 100xBB with JJ, how the hell can you lay down KK? I've laid down KK preflop online, but I'll never ever lay down KK preflop on Party. I've seen an all-in and CALL...AQ and AT...IN A RING GAME! WTF! Who plays like that? and how did they get me to fold TT?

With the atrocious play, it has to be +EV over the long run, but it seems the only way to play these people is to wait for the nuts and punish them. They'll reraise with top pair thinking that they have an unbeatable hand. The problem is that I often fold two pair thinking that they have a made hand. After I fold, they'll show me a mediocre hand thinking they had the nuts. Dumb asses...donkeys, mules...etc.

It gets more frustrating when you play the game for 3 hours and leave without profit while donkey #1 makes a couple mortgage payments and donkey #2 gave away all your money from when he hit his 4 outer in a hand where I'm sure he thought he was ahead to begin with.

I'm not complaining about bad beats mind you. I'm just not very good at adjusting to completely random play by my opponents. I can deal with a preflop call with 34 suited. I can deal with a semi-bluff raise. I'm just flabbergasted by some of these:

• The board is TTA87. After the turn, the pot is $700. I have a ten and bet $250. Guy raises my river bet all-in for $160 more. The pot is already $950 plus his $160 so of course, I have to call...............to see his pocket fives, which can ONLY beat a pure bluff. I'm not folding even if I have 66 so he had zero folding equity. I'm not sure why he called my flop and turn bets...perhaps he was drawing to 2 outs and when he missed thought he could buy it by raising what was less than double my river bet and oh by the way, a big pot sitting in the middle.
  
• I lead out with KQ from the SB on a KT9 board. The BB raises and MP reraises and gets called. I have to be behind here so I fold. They ended up with a 3-way all-in on the turn. Their cards were K5, Q8, and 87. The great player with K5 won.
  
• I saw someone CALL a bet on the river with pocket twos. The board was 44779. You can't beat the board! The only hands you can beat are hands with 2 cards between 2 and 8 and without a 4 or 7! WTF! This is a $600NL table! Where did you get $600?
  

These people would be losing their ass playing the $25NL tables. How did they.....
Playing against these people is hardly what I consider intellectually challenging poker. It should boost the bankroll though if I can just get a rush of cards.

WSOP

At first I didn't think the main event was worthy of a try because the buy-in was so substantial and my shot of getting in the money is pretty damn slim (even if I played perfect poker). After seeing countless ads for the WSOP satellites and thinking about what the experience might be like, I will put forth a little more effort to win a seat in the main event. Besides Jan at 50outs, has anyone else won their way in?

I took a closer look at Party, UB, Stars and FullTilt's satellite structures trying to decide which route would be my best shot.

The prize package at FullTilt is definitely the most attractive to me. They just give you 2K to spend on your own hotel/flight and they'll give you an additional $10 million if you're the lucky winner. I'm short on vacation time and if I get knocked out early, I'd like to return home early and get back to work, so the travel cash would be nice.

The Party steps certainly seem like the most entertaining route and perhaps they're also my best shot at winning.

I'll probably end up playing Party steps, Stars MTT satellites and some FullTilt STT satellites.

FullTilt is also having a 30 seat guaranteed satellite that I’ll try for, but that isn’t until mid to late June I believe, so I’ll wait and see if I win a seat elsewhere first.  ¶ 10:41 AM |

  More on Steps

So I've been having a frustrating time of late trying to grow the bankroll. Whether it be from bad beats or from bad reads, my results have been breaking even for far too long. Last night I sat down at 7:00 or so ready for a poker marathon. The problem was that I couldn't find a table that I wanted to play. If the oven is hot when you touch it, you don't really want to touch it again.

So I figured I'd take my first shot at the WSOP Steps. I wanted to play for fun tonight so I thought I'd start at level 1 fully expecting to get a few retries before moving up. I bought into 3 step 1 tournaments. In the first one, we're down to the final 2 and he pushes with T2 and I call with Ace-x and I lose. Bah! Damn it. Next hand he wins it all with a race. So close...oh wait, it says that I'm moving up. I signed up for the regular step 1 tournament by mistake. No wonder he pushed with T2.

I bubble in the second step 1 by CALLING all-in with QQ and a QT7 board. I was up against AQ and T9. Both were drawing to runner/runner.

I win a redo in the 3rd WSOP Step 1 and win the redo.

On to the step 2s. I won the WSOP step 2 and got a miserable 7th in the step 3.

For the regular step 2, I won, and moved up where I dropped back to step 2. That happened 2 more times before making a poor call in the step 3 (it was 12:45 and that is my excuse) and bubbling out.

My initial reaction is that for an initial investment of $12, someone could play a lot of poker with a small chance at winning a substantial reward. I definitely don't think it is a good place to spend your time if you're looking to maximize your earn rate. However, if you're looking to have some fun, I think this is a good pitstop on your poker track. I love the structure. It is like a game within the game...step 1, step 2, step 3, step 2, etc. I parlayed 3 buy-ins into 9 additional SNGs, and I humbly believe that it should've been more.

I'm getting the hang of these SNGs I think. They are much different than the SNGs I'm used to on UB and Stars so it took a little adjusting. After playing about 80 of these things recently, I'm more confident in my adjustments. I need to get back to real tables again, but perhaps I'll be back to the steps when I'm in the mood for a fun, relaxing night.  ¶ 9:51 AM |

  Blog renamed

For those that read this using a feed service, you'll have to pop up the blog to see it. The theme song linked in the title is pretty funny, but I'd recommend waiting until you're not at work to view it. The site is pretty sketchy.

What dreams are made of:

dealt to doubleas: JJ

EP raises
I call
SB reraises kind of small
EP calls
I call

FLOP: JT6

SB bets 1.5 times the pot, which is about half of our remaining stacks
EP smooth-calls
I raise all-in and get called by both

SB had aces of course
EP had TT for a set  ¶ 10:31 AM |

  Party SNGs

“The dumbest people on this earth play at Party. Why the hell, are they taking my money!?!?” -- me

I've been playing a lot of Party SNGs lately and I've seen play that I'm pretty sure my son (5 yrs old) wouldn't even make.

• I saw a big blind FOLD preflop after only the SB limped.
  
• I raised preflop and got called by two including the SB. The pot was now about 600. The SB led into me (the PFR) after and ace flopped for 600. I went all-in for 50 more chips. Other person folded. SB FOLDED! He owed 50 chips into an 1800 pot and had two cards left to hit runner/runner if he needed it. I asked if he hit the wrong button and he said "baaaaaad bluff".
  
• Down to 4 people (3 pay) and 2nd place pushed all-in into the big stack on a stone cold bluff. Now this may not seem too bad at first, but it was a check-raise on the flop for 1200 more and the pot was already over 2500. Big stack was forced to call with top pair/poor kicker and wins. I was in 4th place at the time with 3 big blinds left and was next to pay the big blind.
  
• All-in preflop with AJ in the first round.
  
• CALL a big raise preflop with KJ and then go broke on a K-high board in the first round.
  
• Bluffing dry side pots with 4 people left and the main pot stuck because shorty is all-in is a common occurrence. Usually, I'd want to reach across the table and strangle them, but I was the bubble boy who got saved because a flush draw bet the turn and forced middle pair out of the hand and my pocket dueces held up! Middle pair guy bubbled in the next few hands out of pure anger.
  

I must say that I watched a step 6 WSOP SNG and I think that the final 3-4 players were actually pretty good and I couldn't complain about any of their play when down to 4-5 players. The good news is that if you get hit by the deck in a step 6 SNG, you're most likely going to the main event because the blinds increase so fast that nobody has time to bully with bad cards. Players are forced to push with AT after awhile.

I really need to stop playing Party and start playing a new skin with a rakeback deal. I've signed up for one, but can't seem to sign in. My broadband connection retains the same IP for extended periods even if I unplug for awhile. I've tried uninstalling everything and deleting the registry key without success. They track based on IP address? Is there a new registry key besides the calculator one?

WSOP

I didn't want to qualify for the main event a couple months ago because I figured that I'd rather win $10K than win a main event seat since the chances of me winning a substantial amount of money in the tournament were pretty miniscule (even Negreanu's chances are pretty small). Well after seeing the ads for qualifiers across the internet, doing the WSOP Steps simulation and thinking about it more, it has grown on me and now I wouldn't mind winning a seat. The problem is that I don't have enough vacation time to spend on the week long tournament. I'd have to make up the time somehow before and after I went, but that is probably a sacrifice I'm willing to make.

I saw that Iggy has organized a qualifier for the $1500 WSOP event on the 3rd of June. Unfortunately, I have plans that weekend and wouldn't be able to play the event, but I am considering one of the $1K or $1.5K events during the main in July. We'll see how things work out.

My SNG Challenge

I'm playing groups of SNGs 20 at a time. I started with $1100 and played 20 $55 SNGs. I’ll take any money won from those 20 SNGs and play what I can afford. I happened to win $1300, so that meant 17 $55 SNGs and 3 $109 SNGs. I turned that into $1800, which means I can now play 7 $55s and 13 $109s and so on and so on. I started this up because I’ve been running real bad in ring games and wanted to find something more fun. Well, when you’re 4-tabling blind races (I mean SNGs), then you can’t really dwell on that bad beat or bad play. You have to move on and start up another. Its fun poker because you’re gambling it up with huge blinds and you’ll be in a lot of races towards the end. Just win more than the next guy and it is long-term profitable. I’ve heard about $215 SNG players that only play SNGs. They clean up and I figure that I could probably clean up too, thus the end goal of this little challenge. You can easily 4-table the games and play about 20/night. I’m pretty confident that I suck and my ROI over the long run is 15%. 15% of 20 $215 SNGs ain’t bad for a little gamboooling. If I get better at these things, I’ll be dangerous.  ¶ 12:02 PM |

  WSOP Steps Simulation

I really should be spending my time on other things

I wrote and ran a simulation of the WSOP steps challenge using my SNG data. I plugged in my stats for SNG placement over my 346 10-handed SNGs (I realize the fallacies of using this data, but it is the best I have available to me) and came up with the following results:

Start Level	# of tries to win (on avg)	Avg amount spent
$12	72.5	$870
$55	17.5	$962.50
$220	13.25	$2912
$540	8	$4320
$1080	5.85	$6318
$2150	4	$8600

Note, that with all of these calculations, I'm including all of the subsequent tries played once you start a WSOP Step Challenge until you drop out.

I'm not sure why, but it seems that the average number of SNGs played per try was constantly around 10-11 when starting at the $55 or higher. Weird, but assuming it is correct, and the average Party SNG lasts 45 minutes (no clue on this one), then I can multiply the middle column by 450 minutes to see the level of effort I would supposedly have to invest at each level in order to win and then divide that by the EV of starting at that level, which is 13K - avg amount spent and I could come up with an expected hourly rate. This all assumes I have infinite time to take shots at the WSOP along with infinite availability on the site....if you made it this far, then you probably don't care about these "trivial" assumptions (tongue-in-cheek).

Anyway, the results are:

Starting level	Hourly EValue
$12	$55
$55	$92
$220	$102
$540	$145
$1080	$152
$2150	$146

Note, that with all of these calculations, I'm including all of the subsequent tries played once you start a WSOP Step Challenge until you drop out.

Notice that you should never start at the $2150 level. You’re losing $6/hr by doing that :)

One ridiculous step further and we can say that the expected values of each level are 13K divided by the number of tries it would take.

$179
$742
$981
$1625
$2222
$3250

and subtracting the entry cost, your profit per time you start a fresh...

$167
$687
$761
$1085
$1142
$1200

Note, that with all of these calculations, I'm including all of the subsequent tries played once you start a WSOP Step Challenge until you drop out.

If you are a better SNG player than me, then your results will obviously be better than mine. Email me if you want the simulation to plug in your data and see how you’d do. Since I thought this was a one time exercise, I didn’t automate a lot of the math in the tables…just the WSOP sim and a few summary results.

I’ll give you a hint about my SNG results. I get top 3 about 9.8%,14.7%, and 15% of the time and 9th or 10th 2.5% and 4.8%.

GUARANTEE YOURSELF A WSOP SEAT

My theory is that you could literally fold every hand until you’re guaranteed a ‘do-over’ and then just push all-in with any hand better than average and still do ok. Somebody give this a try and let me know how you do. A change to that theory is pushing all-in before the guarantee with a top 4 hand and winning the blinds and/or any pots you happened to get called on. The only reason to add this change is if they are tight enough that you'd get blinded away before the guarantee spot.

The point is that if you can lock up 5th place, you’ll GUARANTEE YOURSELF A WSOP SEAT given enough tries because you’ll never drop out of the steps and you’ll eventually get bonehead lucky and win 7 40% hands in a row.

I'm just kidding. If you're going to play in the first level, you really need to play to win it or else you're going to spend much more time at that level than you'd want. Besides $12 isn't much to throw at a $13K prize. Playing to win doesn't mean playing recklessly early, but it does mean that you should look for spots to double up before you're down to 5.  ¶ 3:59 PM |

  Rename competition concluded

There must not be many funny poker-related sites out there since I only received 3 posts. I think I found the funniest site: http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3903/is_200310/ai_n9335567 - funny because it is true... (for me, no offense).

Drumroll please....The winner of the doubleas blog renaming rights are ...drumroll continues....Marcus.

Marcus, email me and let me know what the name is.

Although hammer play is pretty funny, I've experienced first hand the comic relief of its power. The AK article was original for me and was an eye-opening to the site as a whole. I must've spent 20 minutes browsing that site.  ¶ 2:37 PM |

  Blog Renaming

I got booted from the last WPBT event by rolee, who has so kindly given the rights up to you, the blogging community. So I've been thinking of some sort of competition to put up...

• best picture emailed to me from Vegas blogger trip
  
• first person to send me a hand history of a successful hammer played after this post
  
• first person to send me $849.99
  
• perhaps a long name that includes any blog name that can prove they aren't the player who sucked out on me for a huge pot last night
  
• first player to raise with the hammer and win at showdown. this throws a new twist to your normal hammer play
  
• best quote from the Aruba 2004 broadcast tonight
  
• anyone who can prove they weren't one of the million people who took a pot off me last night
  
• first person to back me in a tournament
  
• last person to back me in a tournament (this is probably the same as above)
  
• best bonus news post after this one
  
• etc.
  

I couldn't decide which was best, so I picked one without much scrutiny...

Post a humorous poker-related link in the comments of this post.

Friday, I'll pick the best link posted in the comments. So post your favorite humorous poker-related webpage in the comments and if I like it the best, you can rename this blog for a week. The only stipulation I have is that the link cannot be to another blog that is linked to on the right. Also, if the link is not suitable for the workplace, please say so in the comments and people will know that they should view it from home. I already read those so it wouldn't be anything new to me.  ¶ 9:08 AM |

  Post-Aruba win funk

I would do some deep thinking if I were you and maybe revamp my attack.
--Butch, who didn't know my post was a hoax

Butch is right though. I do need to revamp my attack. My bankroll has been stagnant for a month. Coincidently, it hasn't moved since I started playing for Aruba. Even after I won the trip a week ago, I've had very little motivation to play. I just don't feel like playing for some reason.

It is a good thing that I have nothing better to do after the kids go to bed, or I would never get online. I have forced myself into some ring games the last couple of nights, but with little success. I have usually dropped a buy-in early with some poor play and had to work it back up for the rest of the hour or so that I play.

I had KK run into AA. I just couldn't believe he'd play aces that way (a 40xBB raise preflop after I had raised to 4xBB). note taken. Funny thing is that if he raised a more standard aces raise, then I probably don't go broke there. He made a wierd play (a play that folds a lot of hands you want action from) and it worked out for him because I played like MORE of a moron than he did. Luckily I had AA when someone else had KK and he put me all-in this time. It held up and the pot was bigger. Then I called off WAY too much money with my aces when someone had a set. My instincts were correct, but I didn't trust them enough to fold...donkey.

You know I'm in a bad spot at the moment when... I'm avoiding some known juicy tables because of their high variance (bad sign #1). I'm making some poor reads because I'm jumping around sites and game types. I'm reluctant to sit down at any table really (bad sign #2).

Back in the day (4 months ago), I couldn't stop thinking about getting on that computer at night and taking it to the fishies. Now I'm just trying to avoid set over set situations. Don't think a break would help me much, since I've only played for 4 of the last 18 days anyway.

I'm going to sort out some goals over the next few days (already hit 2 of my goals for 2005 and I'm kinda hitting a 3rd one). I'd like to ultimately push the bankroll to a point where I'm comfortable playing 10/20 or 10/25 NL...eventually stepping into the $25/50 NL game where it seems to be all about playing the player rather than the cards....can't wait.  ¶ 3:30 PM |

  Home game drunkenness goes too far

We had our weekly home game last night. I need to provide some background before going any farther. We play 2 $10 SNGs with somewhere between 6 and 15 players each week. The money is meaningless. The pride of winning is what counts. Some folks enjoy their alcohol. Last night, things got out of hand and almost everyone was drunk beyond any semblance of good decision making. After getting knocked out of the first tournament (via a tremendous bad beat), I had built up quite a bit of liquid courage and decided to play online while waiting for the 2nd tournament. I sat down at $5/10 NL and before I knew it, I had lost and re-bought enough to be $2500 in the hole. Liquid courage stone cold bluffs on every other hand are bad. Bah! Damnit….more alcohol!

That ties my biggest lose in a night…not a good feeling. Having your friends talk about it as if you're not even in the room doesn’t help. The 2nd tournament is about to start and I can’t get that money out of my head. We play at my house you see, which is even worse because I have the opportunity to play online at any drunken moment and that is unfortunately what I decided to do. Screw the $10 SNG crap, I gotta get my money back. Straight to $10/20 NL while the rest of them shuffled up and dealt. $2000 buy-in and I’m ready to go. Many of these players also play $5/10, so I’m confident, whether it be by liquid or not, who knows.

2nd orbit and I’m proud of myself for not tightening up too much when the blinds doubled from my normal game. Actually now, I think this was just liquid courage acting again. Anyway, I’m down a few hundred when I pick up AA on the button. There is a raise and a reraise before me. I yell out to the live playing gang to come watch. I reraise to $700. Both call and they both have over $5K so they’re obviously playing this pot against each other instead or worrying too much about my puny $1100 stack that I have left over. The flop is QJ3. 3-way all-in and the crowd goes crazy. My house might have been loud enough to be declared a menace to society. The turn and river appear (don’t even remember what they were) and the hole cards flip up. My beautiful rockets appear first, then the next guy's JJ. Then the next guy's QQ. Blam. What just happened?

I somehow became an outcast circus monkey to all my ‘friends’ who were acting like I had leprosy or some other highly contagious and lethal disease. I’m down $4500. “Damn man, if I had $4500 to lose, I would just buy a fucking car”. “$4500 gone just like that man…that sucks”. “Are you going to tell ?”. The comments were numerous and every one of them just turned the knife that much more.

I had left the table and my Stars account was down under $150. Their daily deposit limit is $600, so no more play for me there thank God.

I double-fist alcohol for the next hour while watching the SNG that I can’t even play in now because "they’ve already started". It's $10! Let me in ya jerks. My house and I'm forbidden from the game.

About an hour goes by when I innocently walk over to the computer to avoid suspicion from the mob and look at my UB balance. I have about $6K there. The $25/50 game is running and curzdog is eating it up tonight. I watch for a bit, but it doesn’t take long for my drunk “courageous” self to sit down with $5K and try to get back to even. After only a few orbits, the table starts to break up. Curz sits out to go do something and it is 4-handed. I’m goooot short-handed (or at least I am sometimes). This could be it. I’ll school these guys, get back to even and be on with life.

#$!@, 3!@$!#@, Mother.ca7u23 ad=341, 1q23097r,

$5K gone just like that. Flop a set against a str8 and flush draw. All-in on the flop. Flush hits. Boat misses. -$9500

"What are you doing over there? Are you playing again?"
"No, just surfing the net"

Rebuy! I just recently had my deposit limits increased at UB to be $10K, which I guess they do without prodding after you’ve played there enough and have a long enough history of successful withdraws and deposits. I reload from neteller and sit in again. I think 10 minutes passed by at most before I had lost another $4K. -$13500 (or so). 4-handed against aggressive players makes the variance incredible. Flush draws are gold it seems (and they hit every time against me). Rebuy up to the 5K again and keep marching. My mind and body are so numb. It is like I’m not even there. I’m just watching from outside my body as entertained as ever. It doesn’t even occur to me what is really going on. I have a feeling that I’m the best player at the table and it’ll all come my way as the cards even out.

I’m not going to bore you with hands, so I’ll just say that it was one of those nights. I didn’t have a good read on the other players, they hit every draw, and I hit nothing. I dropped the full reload and everything that was in my account. Basically $16K from UB and the $4500 from Stars. By then a good friend had busted out of the tournament and had been standing behind me. I didn’t even know he was there. I close UB and Stars. I brought up Full Tilt where my balance is about $4200…as displayed at the quarter Razz tables on WPBT night.

I started looking for a table to sit at on Full Tilt when my buddy unplugged the computer from the wall. It took me about 20 seconds to realize what had happened. 20 seconds! That is how drunk I was. I finally realize what happened and swirl around. WTF Man! What do you think you’re doing!? “Saving the rest of your ass” was the response with that stoic, yet stern tone that brings back memories of your childhood when you were wondering why you couldn't have that cool new toy.

All the wind went out of me. Like getting slapped across the face, I finally realized what I had just done. I felt like a fool and it is the worst feeling I’ve had since I can remember. I was in shock and couldn’t say a word. Instead of trying to act cool, explain myself, or finish out the night with the boys, I just walked upstairs and curled up under the covers. I never fell asleep. I just walked in my office to type this up so maybe it'll be off my chest and I can get some sleep.

My bankroll stands at $6K give or take a few dollars. What to do now? I think $5/10 is out of the question, especially with my play as of late. I guess I could play $2/4 NL or the occasional $3/6 NL. I could just play SNGs and build it up slowly. Who knows? I’ll think about it over the next couple weeks while I take a required break from poker. I still can’t believe I did that. I’m mentally numb at the moment. The Aruba win was the height of my poker hobby and within a week, I’ve reached the abyss.

I’d ask for backers for the $5/10 NL game, but I’m sure nobody would be interested after this display of stupidity. Am I an alcoholic? Don’t answer that. I don’t want to hear the answer. Good luck to you all over the next couple weeks. I’ll see you then.

Please don’t comment on this post. It is depressing as it is. If you want/need to say something, highlight the following section and the white font will show up:

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April Fools! ... as if it weren't obvious
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  ¶ 8:10 AM |